Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 43.35%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.63%) and 1-2 (8.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.11%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 1-0 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.