Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 39.11%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (11.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.