Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 38.77%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (7.31%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.