Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Plaza Colonia and Penarol.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 37.08%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.62%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (11.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.