Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 38.46%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 33.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 (10.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.