Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 60.23%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 15.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.06%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.