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Copa Libertadores

Penarol
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 26, 2022 at 1am UK
Estadio Campeon del Siglo

Penarol
2 - 1
Colon

Ceppelini (48'), Menosse (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Farias (32')
Goltz (38'), Delgado (58'), Teuten (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Penarol and Colon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

Last Six:
Last Game: Penarol 0-1 Cerro Largo
Saturday, June 4 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Colon

Last Six:
Last Game: Tucuman 1-1 Colon
Saturday, June 4 at 4pm in Argentine Primera Division
Next Game: Colon vs. Union
Sunday, June 12 at 5pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Colon had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Colon win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
PenarolDrawColon
43.81% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)26.13% (0.015000000000001 0.02)30.05% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 52.04% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.8% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)52.2% (0.050999999999995 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.09% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)73.91% (0.042999999999992 0.04)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.3% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)23.7% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.18% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)57.82% (0.058 0.06)
Colon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.2% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)31.8% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.77% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)68.23% (0.01400000000001 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Penarol 43.8%
    Colon 30.05%
    Draw 26.13%
PenarolDrawColon
1-0 @ 10.84% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.95% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.81% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 4.3% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.75% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.46% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.55% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 1.35% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 43.8%
1-1 @ 12.43% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.53% (0.015 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.13% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.13%
0-1 @ 8.63% (0.014999999999999 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.12% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.95% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.72%
2-3 @ 1.96% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.89% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 30.05%

How you voted: Penarol vs Colon

Penarol
43.8%
Draw
18.8%
Colon
37.5%
16
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2022 11.15pm
Colon
2-1
Penarol
Miguel Rodriguez (31'), Farias (90')
Delgado (51'), Bernardi (90+2')
Ceppelini (69')
Arias (80')