Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 44.67%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 24.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.75%) and 1-2 (7.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.95%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.