Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.05%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 22.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.45%) and 1-2 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (9.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.