Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 38.73%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.05%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.