Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 58.38%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 17.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.