Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 54.16%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 19.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.44%) and 1-2 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.99%), while for a Boston River win it was 1-0 (8.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.