Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 44.51%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (8.56%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.