Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.02%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 23.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.