Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.63%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Rentistas had a probability of 16.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.54%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Rentistas win it was 0-1 (7.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.