Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.38%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 26.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.99%) and 1-2 (7.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.19%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.