Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 36.2%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 35.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 1-0 (11.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.