Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 39.92%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 29.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.11%) and 2-1 (7.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.4%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.