Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 43.45%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.