Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 28.94% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (8.39%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.