Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.53%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 19.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.09%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (8.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.