Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 48.15%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 24.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.69%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 1-0 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.