Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.8%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 16.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.93%) and 1-2 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Boston River win it was 1-0 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.