Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boston River win with a probability of 40.32%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boston River win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.13%) and 1-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (11.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.