Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boston River win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 29.8% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boston River win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.17%) and 1-2 (7.96%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (11.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Boston River in this match.