Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenix would win this match.