Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.72%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (11.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.