Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.34%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 25.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.