Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 42.29%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.