Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 8, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Saroldi
Penarol

River Plate
0 - 4
Penarol

FT(HT: 0-4)
Arezo (8', 16' pen., 75'), Milans Carambula (21'), Milans (21')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between River Plate and Penarol.

Form, Standings, Stats

River Plate

All competitions
Last Game: Boston River 0-0 River Plate
Saturday, March 4 at 10.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Penarol

All competitions
Last Game: Penarol 2-1 Maldonado
Sunday, March 5 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 27.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.65%) and 1-2 (8.55%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
River PlateDrawPenarol
27.99% (-0.218 -0.22)27.83% (0.199 0.2)44.18% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 45.98% (-0.663 -0.66)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.57% (-0.782 -0.78)59.43% (0.787 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.2% (-0.605 -0.6)79.8% (0.607 0.61)
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.78% (-0.602 -0.6)37.22% (0.606 0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26% (-0.601 -0.6)74% (0.605 0.61)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.24% (-0.348 -0.35)26.76% (0.352 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.96% (-0.464 -0.46)62.04% (0.468 0.47)
Score Analysis
    River Plate 27.99%
    Penarol 44.18%
    Draw 27.82%
River PlateDrawPenarol
1-0 @ 9.85% (0.13 0.13)
2-1 @ 6.41% (-0.085 -0.09)
2-0 @ 4.87% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 2.11% (-0.063 -0.06)
3-0 @ 1.6% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.39% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 27.99%
1-1 @ 12.97% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 9.96% (0.291 0.29)
2-2 @ 4.23% (-0.098999999999999 -0.1)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 27.82%
0-1 @ 13.13% (0.26 0.26)
0-2 @ 8.65% (0.083 0.08)
1-2 @ 8.55% (-0.058999999999999 -0.06)
0-3 @ 3.8% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 3.76% (-0.064 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.86% (-0.063 -0.06)
0-4 @ 1.25% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.24% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 44.18%

Head to Head
Oct 16, 2022 10.30pm
Penarol
1-1
River Plate
Bentancourt (64' pen.)
Cristobal (13')
Pereira (64')
May 29, 2022 7pm
River Plate
0-0
Penarol

Pereira (15'), Montiel (17'), Diaz (59'), Brunelli (64'), Alfonso (69')

Musto (29'), Carrizo (64'), Menosse (90')
Nov 14, 2021 7.30pm
River Plate
1-1
Penarol
Galletto (16')
Herrera (90+7')
Ceppelini (67' pen.)
Aug 1, 2021 10pm
Penarol
2-0
River Plate
Alvarez (18'), Torres (32')
Rodriguez (29'), Musto (85')

Rodriguez (47'), Borbas (58'), Montiel (61')
Mar 6, 2021 11.15pm
Penarol
2-0
River Plate
Britos (38'), A (48')
Gonzalez (22'), Britos (52'), Acosta (74'), Piquerez (85')

Calzada (63'), Montiel (66'), Salaberry (71'), Neris (90')