Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 43.15%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 28.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.69%) and 1-2 (8.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.17%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.