Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Metropolitanos win was 1-0 (11.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.