Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 5, 2023 at 3am UK
 

Metropolitanos
1 - 2
Nacional

Ortiz (52')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Gigliotti (23'), Ginella (90+1')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Metropolitanos and Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Metropolitanos

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lanus 1-0 Metropolitanos
Wednesday, May 25 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Penarol 2-0 Nacional
Saturday, April 1 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Metropolitanos win was 1-0 (11.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
MetropolitanosDrawNacional
31.81% (-0.346 -0.35)29.44% (0.414 0.41)38.74% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07)
Both teams to score 43.23% (-1.184 -1.18)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.38% (-1.409 -1.41)63.61% (1.41 1.41)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.09% (-1.022 -1.02)82.91% (1.022 1.02)
Metropolitanos Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.46% (-1.021 -1.02)36.54% (1.021 1.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.67% (-1.042 -1.04)73.33% (1.043 1.04)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.12% (-0.76000000000001 -0.76)31.88% (0.762 0.76)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.68% (-0.879 -0.88)68.32% (0.88000000000001 0.88)
Score Analysis
    Metropolitanos 31.81%
    Nacional 38.74%
    Draw 29.43%
MetropolitanosDrawNacional
1-0 @ 11.72% (0.28 0.28)
2-1 @ 6.75% (-0.163 -0.16)
2-0 @ 5.9% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
3-1 @ 2.27% (-0.12 -0.12)
3-0 @ 1.98% (-0.062 -0.06)
3-2 @ 1.3% (-0.097 -0.1)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 31.81%
1-1 @ 13.4% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 11.64% (0.59 0.59)
2-2 @ 3.86% (-0.177 -0.18)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 29.43%
0-1 @ 13.31% (0.41 0.41)
1-2 @ 7.66% (-0.132 -0.13)
0-2 @ 7.61% (0.08 0.08)
1-3 @ 2.92% (-0.113 -0.11)
0-3 @ 2.9% (-0.03 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.47% (-0.1 -0.1)
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 38.74%