Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 36.91%. A win for La Luz had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest La Luz win was 1-0 (11.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.