Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.04%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 24.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.46%) and 1-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for a Montevideo City Torque win it was 1-0 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.