Copa Libertadores
Apr 19, 2023 11.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Gran Parque Central
  • Gaston Pereiro 37' goal
  • Fabian Noguera 90'+6' goal
  • goal Luciano Pons 79'

Nacional vs Independiente Medellin - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
Apr 5, 2023 3.00am
Metropolitanos 1 - 2 Nacional

Independiente Medellin

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
Apr 5, 2023 1.00am
Medellin 1 - 1 Internacional

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 22.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result

Nacional 50.29% ▲ (+0.15)
Draw 26.86% ▼ (-0.09)
Independiente Medellin 22.84% ▼ (-0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.4% ▲ (+0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5 40.68% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 2.5 59.32% ▼ (-0.25)
Over 3.5 20.28% ▲ (+0.20)
Under 3.5 79.72% ▼ (-0.20)
Over 4.5 8.5% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 4.5 91.5% ▼ (-0.12)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 76.25% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 0.5 23.75% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 1.5 42.11% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 1.5 57.89% ▼ (-0.25)

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 0.5 58.23% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 0.5 41.77% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 1.5 21.76% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 78.24% ▼ (-0.08)

Score analysis

Nacional 50.29%
Draw 26.86%
Independiente Medellin 22.84%
Nacional
1-0 @ 14.26% ▼ (-0.07)
2-0 @ 10.25% ▲ (+0.01)
2-1 @ 8.95% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 4.91% ▲ (+0.03)
3-1 @ 4.29% ▲ (+0.04)
3-2 @ 1.87% ▲ (+0.03)
4-0 @ 1.77% ▲ (+0.02)
4-1 @ 1.54% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 50.29%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.44% ▼ (-0.04)
0-0 @ 9.92% ▼ (-0.10)
2-2 @ 3.91% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.59%
Total : 26.86%
Independiente Medellin
0-1 @ 8.66% ▼ (-0.06)
1-2 @ 5.43% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 3.78% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 1.58% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.14% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.1% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 1.15%
Total : 22.84%