Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 19, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Medellin

Nacional
2 - 1
Medellin

Pereiro (37'), Noguera (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Pons (79')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Nacional and Independiente Medellin.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 4-0 Fenix
Saturday, April 15 at 12am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Independiente Medellin

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Medellin 1-1 Internacional
Wednesday, April 5 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 22.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawIndependiente Medellin
50.29% (0.144 0.14)26.86% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09)22.84% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
Both teams to score 44.4% (0.171 0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.68% (0.252 0.25)59.32% (-0.249 -0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.28% (0.194 0.19)79.72% (-0.19200000000001 -0.19)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.25% (0.175 0.17)23.75% (-0.173 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.11% (0.251 0.25)57.89% (-0.248 -0.25)
Independiente Medellin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.23% (0.091999999999999 0.09)41.77% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.76% (0.079999999999998 0.08)78.24% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 50.29%
    Independiente Medellin 22.84%
    Draw 26.86%
NacionalDrawIndependiente Medellin
1-0 @ 14.26% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-0 @ 10.25% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.95% (0.029 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.91% (0.028 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.29% (0.035 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.87% (0.02 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.77% (0.019 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.54% (0.021 0.02)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 50.29%
1-1 @ 12.44% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
0-0 @ 9.92% (-0.090999999999999 -0.09)
2-2 @ 3.91% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.59%
Total : 26.86%
0-1 @ 8.66% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
1-2 @ 5.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 3.78% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.58% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 1.14% (0.01 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.1% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.15%
Total : 22.84%