Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 36.56%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 35.42% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (11.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.