Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 39.29%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 29.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.04%) and 2-1 (7.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.68%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Danubio would win this match.