Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.59%) and 1-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.