Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 44.56%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 29.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.