Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 44.35%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 26.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.04%) and 2-1 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.09%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Racing de Montevideo would win this match.