Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 42.72%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 28.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.65%) and 1-2 (8.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.