Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.