Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.