Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 38.12%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 34.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.