Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 9
Nov 11, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Penarol

Nacional
2 - 2
Penarol

Ramirez (30'), Baez (63')
Baez (63'), Baez (64'), Rodriguez (73')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Neris (48'), Hernandez (87')
Coelho (15'), Gonzalez (31'), Rodriguez (72')
Coelho (35')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Penarol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: River Plate 0-3 Nacional
Saturday, November 4 at 11pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Penarol

All competitions
Last Game: Penarol 0-1 Liverpool
Sunday, November 5 at 11pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (10.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.

Result
NacionalDrawPenarol
32.35% (-0.61 -0.61)28.04% (0.285 0.29)39.62% (0.326 0.33)
Both teams to score 47.22% (-0.972 -0.97)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.25% (-1.15 -1.15)58.75% (1.151 1.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.73% (-0.901 -0.9)79.28% (0.90400000000001 0.9)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.45% (-1.019 -1.02)33.55% (1.022 1.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.81% (-1.129 -1.13)70.19% (1.131 1.13)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.07% (-0.367 -0.37)28.93% (0.369 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.19% (-0.456 -0.46)64.81% (0.459 0.46)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 32.34%
    Penarol 39.61%
    Draw 28.03%
NacionalDrawPenarol
1-0 @ 10.6% (0.17 0.17)
2-1 @ 7.18% (-0.163 -0.16)
2-0 @ 5.79% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-1 @ 2.61% (-0.135 -0.14)
3-0 @ 2.11% (-0.086 -0.09)
3-2 @ 1.62% (-0.101 -0.1)
Other @ 2.44%
Total : 32.34%
1-1 @ 13.14% (0.07 0.07)
0-0 @ 9.71% (0.416 0.42)
2-2 @ 4.45% (-0.148 -0.15)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 28.03%
0-1 @ 12.03% (0.39 0.39)
1-2 @ 8.15% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-2 @ 7.47% (0.171 0.17)
1-3 @ 3.37% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-3 @ 3.09% (0.04 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.08 -0.08)
1-4 @ 1.05% (-0.027 -0.03)
0-4 @ 0.96% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 39.61%

Head to Head
Apr 1, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 9
Penarol
2-0
Nacional
Mendez (78'), Laquintana (90')
Sep 4, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 4
Nacional
3-1
Penarol
Laborda (45+1'), Suarez (53'), Candido (76')
Lozano (12'), Zabala (90+7')
Mendez (61')
Rak (14'), Rossi (77'), Lozano (86'), Da Silveira (90+8')
Feb 27, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 4
Penarol
1-0
Nacional
Ceppelini (32' pen.)
Arias (73')
Ceppelini (40')

Trezza (42'), Luis Rodriguez (49'), Gigliotti (77'), Trasante (90+4')
Gigliotti (82')
Oct 31, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 9
Penarol
0-0
Nacional
Ceppelini (59'), Gargano (78'), Dawson (90+2')
Carballo (13'), Trezza (45'), Polenta (56'), Zunino (59'), Almeida (80'), Ocampo (88')
Jul 23, 2021 1.30am
Round of 16 2nd Leg
Penarol
0-1
Nacional
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