Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.44%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 23.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.83%) and 1-2 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Boston River win it was 1-0 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.