Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.88%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 21.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.95%) and 1-2 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.