Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 40.11%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 1-0 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%).