Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 51.71%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 23.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.66%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.