Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.98%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.05%) and 1-2 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.